Bitcoin Price In 2020 -- A Very Bullish And A Very Bearish Forecast

August 6, 2018

 

The Bitcoin game rages on. And so does its price volatility, which can rise and fall by 1000 points in a matter of days.That’s good for Bitcoin traders, provided that they are smart and lucky enough to buy and sell at the right time.But for investors, Bitcoin price volatility is just “noise” which makes it hard to see the position the digital currency will be in, let’s say, years from now.

To figure that out, my student Greg Giordano and I have been doing some econometric work lately. Greg ran two econometric models, the Haye’s model and the Wheatley models—see table 3. On the one side, the Haye’s model predicts a price of $55,931.60. That’s a very bullish forecast. For a good reason: it focuses on the supply side of the Bitcoin market, which is expected to grow at an ever-slower pace, as it gets closer to the limit. On the other side, the Wheatley model predicts a price of $2352.03. That’s a very bearish forecast -- for a good reason, too. The model focuses on the Bitcoin use, that is, on the demand side of the Bitcoin market. And Bitcoin demand has been growing slowly, as evidenced by a recent Gallup survey.

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