Google Search Can Predict Bitcoin Price Increases, Study Finds

August 10, 2018

 

A recent study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggests that cryptocurrency markets move depending on the type of attention they receive – unlike traditional financial markets. In contrast with other traditional financial assets, cryptocurrencies don't behave or respond to the same set of market factors as traditional financial instruments but instead, move more closely with "cryptocurrency specific factors," according to the non-profit's report, which was published this week. These factors include investor attention and market momentum, described as the "time-series cryptocurrency momentum at the daily and weekly frequencies."

The paper's authors, Yale University economists Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski, suggest that, contrary to public opinion, "the markets do not view cryptocurrencies similarly to standard asset classes." The paper cited CoinDesk's bitcoin, ethereum and XRP price trackers (referring to XRP as "ripple") as the source of its market data. Using price data series over multi-year time frames, the paper compared actual returns to the projected returns using a standard finance pricing model known as the CAPM.

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